Latin America Economic Outlook
Latin America’s economy is expected to gain momentum next year as inflation and interest rates ease. Despite this, the region is likely to remain the slowest-growing globally due to political instability, high crime rates, corruption, and limited presence of high-value-added activities. Severe weather and an increase in U.S. protectionism are downside risks.
Latin America Inflation
From August to September, inflation fell in Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Paraguay, Peru and Uruguay, and rose in Bolivia, Brazil and Ecuador. Most economies will see lower average inflation in 2025 vs 2024 amid a decline in global commodity prices. That said, U.S. trade tariffs or sociopolitical uncertainty provoking currency depreciation are upside risks.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for Latin America from 2010 to 2021.
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 8,561 | 7,169 | 8,245 | 9,306 | 10,434 |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | 0.8 | -6.6 | 7.2 | 3.9 | 2.2 |
| 1.5 | -7.6 | 8.3 | 5.2 | 2.6 | |
| -0.5 | -11.5 | 16.4 | 5.3 | 4.2 | |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | -1.5 | -6.7 | 7.8 | 2.2 | 0.3 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 8.5 | 10.5 | 9.5 | 7.2 | 6.2 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -3.7 | -8.4 | -4.1 | -3.4 | - |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 59.4 | 69.2 | 63.0 | 61.3 | - |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 7.6 | 6.4 | 10.0 | 15.5 | 18.2 |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 838 | 876 | 913 | 854 | 885 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | -2.0 | -0.1 | -1.8 | -2.3 | -1.3 |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 1,039 | 949 | 1,215 | 1,414 | 1,388 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 9.63 | 5.86 | 9.58 | 19.02 | 20.28 |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 1,031 | 864 | 1,180 | 1,432 | 1,334 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 39.6 | 48.3 | 42.9 | 37.9 | - |